In this article I will try to answer the question, What’s the Secret to Sports Betting Profits? with a simple layman’s explanation.
To start, let’s clarify the problem. The assumption of the question is, What process are making the sportsbooks produce so that they can guarantee a profit every single day, and are they transparent enough to allow us to copy their process?
When dealing with the house, there is always a fair amount of secrets, myths and half-truths that get spread around about certain issues. It’s much easier to deal with the house than it is the bookmakers, and the books are much more worried about their existence than your existence. Still, there are some things that the books can and do hide from you, and understanding those things is the first step to having success with your sports betting.
When dealing with the house, your main concern should be the odds. If the odds are on the bookmaker’s side, then you are usually behind and the lines you see are just symbols in a odds composition (worth less than 100%) or they are just opinion (depo 20 bonus 30).
If you ask me what percentage of the time the bookmaker is behind, I will say that the percentage of the time this event occurs is 50%. In addition, the percentage of the time this bookmaker is behind is fairly consistent and is usually around 52%-58% (of all the times the bookmaker is not favored).
What this boils down to is, when the odds are about even, the bookmaker is almost guaranteed a profit and when the odds are slightly in the books favor, the books super-large bet sizes will result in very little profits.
Additionally, if the event occurs very often, it Antes the books profit potential. This means, they can make a significant profit at predictable odds with little risk.
The secret to sports betting profits is finding arbitrage opportunities and, in the betting world, they can take on average of 8-10 bets per second. This means that, while you wait for them to appear, you can pick and choose in a myriad of ways to wager your money. When I say this, I mean, you should not be anxious to place a bet. You should pick your spots.
Some examples of spots you should NOT bet are:
- After a heavy game on a Saturday, the teams are injury prone. Do NOT bet the outcome of the game.
- There is a game in the NBA playoffs where the pregnant girlfriend of one of the players is giving birth. Do not bet this game.
The point is, there are many opportunities to bet at massively positive odds in a variety of spots. The times that you see a heavy favorite, place the bet. The times that you see a heavy dog, bet the underdog. The times that you see a slight favorite, bet the underdog.
By doing this exact same thing across many different games and different sports, you will over time find a spot that the line favors. When you find a spot, you will bet heavy. If you see another big game coming up, you will bet heavy. If you see a dog in a revenge spot, you will bet heavy.
The key to betting is not complicated, but it’s very easy to get complicated and indecisive. If you want to stop losing, just start betting. Stop worrying about your picks and start worrying about the reality of the game. You will become a much better bettor over the long haul and you will become a consistently profitable bettor, and that’s really what you want.